The Strategic Dimensions of the SMDA: A New Era in Pakistan–Saudi Relations
By Hassaan Ahmad Awan
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Introduction
On September 17, 2025, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed the Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA), a development that has quickly become the centerpiece of global geopolitical debate. The pact, which commits both nations to consider any attack on one as an attack on the other, carries immense symbolic and practical weight. With Pakistan being the only Muslim-majority nuclear power and Saudi Arabia being the economic powerhouse of the Muslim world, the implications of this deal extend far beyond bilateral relations.
According to Reuters, the agreement “cements decades of informal defense cooperation into a legally binding framework” (Reuters, 2025). The question, however, is what this pact really means for Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the broader region.
This column unpacks the strategic dimensions of the SMDA, analyzing its historical context, security implications, regional ripple effects, and the challenges that lie ahead.
Historical Context of Pakistan–Saudi Ties
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have enjoyed close relations since the former’s independence in 1947. Rooted in religious solidarity, energy cooperation, and labor migration, the bond has frequently extended into the defense sector.
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1970s: Pakistan deployed troops in Saudi Arabia to protect the kingdom after regional turbulence.
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1980s: Cooperation deepened during the Soviet–Afghan war, where Saudi funds and Pakistani military expertise converged.
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Post-1998: After Pakistan’s nuclear tests, Saudi Arabia reportedly offered financial support to mitigate sanctions, leading analysts to speculate about a possible “nuclear umbrella” understanding.
The SMDA thus does not emerge in a vacuum; it is the culmination of decades of military, financial, and political interdependence.
Military and Strategic Significance
1. A Formal Security Guarantee
The most striking feature of the SMDA is its NATO-style commitment: an attack on one state is considered an attack on both. For Saudi Arabia, surrounded by regional rivals and uncertain about U.S. security guarantees, this pact provides reassurance. For Pakistan, it elevates its status as a regional security guarantor.
2. Nuclear Dimension
Although not explicitly stated, analysts believe the pact opens the possibility of Pakistan extending its nuclear deterrence to Saudi Arabia. Al Jazeera notes that this dimension could “reshape regional deterrence calculations, especially vis-à-vis Iran and Israel” (Al Jazeera, 2025).
3. Defense Cooperation and Arms Trade
The deal is likely to pave the way for joint training exercises, arms purchases, and intelligence sharing. Pakistan’s defense industry, particularly its missile technology, may find a lucrative market in Saudi Arabia, while Riyadh may offer financial assistance in return.
Economic and Political Implications
Economic Support for Pakistan
Pakistan’s fragile economy has long relied on Saudi bailouts, oil on deferred payments, and remittances from expatriate workers. The SMDA could institutionalize these economic benefits, making defense cooperation a pathway to financial stability.
Political Leverage
For Saudi Arabia, the pact diversifies its security partnerships at a time when U.S. commitment is perceived to be declining. For Pakistan, the deal enhances its bargaining power with both Washington and Beijing, as it demonstrates Islamabad’s capacity to anchor Gulf security.
Regional Repercussions
India’s Concerns
India has reacted cautiously. While some analysts argue New Delhi should not overreact, others warn that the pact strengthens Pakistan’s strategic depth. As Indian Express explained, “India may need to recalibrate its Gulf diplomacy to ensure it is not sidelined” (Indian Express, 2025).
Iran’s Response
Tehran views the agreement with suspicion, interpreting it as a Sunni bloc consolidation against its influence. The nuclear dimension, in particular, could trigger regional arms race anxieties.
Israel and the U.S.
Israel, already wary of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, will closely monitor any suggestion of Saudi access to Pakistan’s deterrent. For the U.S., the pact represents both a challenge and an opportunity—it reduces Washington’s monopoly on Gulf security but allows for burden-sharing.
China’s Quiet Smile
China, which maintains close ties with both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, may benefit strategically. The SMDA strengthens Beijing’s Belt and Road security framework, ensuring its economic corridors remain shielded by strong regional partnerships.
Risks and Challenges
Despite its promise, the SMDA carries risks:
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Escalation Risks: A miscalculated conflict involving Saudi Arabia could drag Pakistan into a war it cannot afford.
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Overextension: Pakistan’s military commitments are already stretched on multiple fronts (India, Afghanistan, internal security).
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International Backlash: Explicit nuclear-sharing arrangements would draw severe international criticism, including sanctions.
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Domestic Politics: In both countries, public perception of prioritizing foreign defense over domestic welfare may spark debate.
Conclusion
The Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia is more than a defense pact—it is a geopolitical statement. It signals Riyadh’s intent to diversify security alliances and Islamabad’s aspiration to be a guarantor of Gulf stability. Yet, the pact also opens a Pandora’s box of challenges, from nuclear deterrence questions to regional rivalries.
Ultimately, the SMDA reflects a shifting world order where traditional alliances are no longer sufficient, and regional powers are compelled to craft new frameworks for survival and influence. Whether this pact stabilizes the region or destabilizes it depends not only on Pakistan and Saudi Arabia but also on how other actors—India, Iran, the U.S., Israel, and China—choose to respond.
FAQs
1. What is the SMDA?
The Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) is a Pakistan–Saudi Arabia pact signed in September 2025, pledging that an attack on one country will be treated as an attack on both.
2. Does the SMDA include nuclear sharing?
While not explicitly mentioned, analysts speculate that the agreement could pave the way for Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence to extend to Saudi Arabia.
3. How does this pact affect India?
It complicates India’s strategic environment, especially in the Gulf, but New Delhi is likely to focus on strengthening its independent ties with Riyadh.
4. What are the economic implications for Pakistan?
The pact may translate into greater Saudi financial assistance, oil concessions, and investment, which could help stabilize Pakistan’s economy.
5. Could the SMDA trigger a regional arms race?
Yes. Iran, Israel, and possibly other Gulf states may perceive the pact as destabilizing, leading to heightened military preparedness and strategic competition.
